Next target: Iran...?

On Irish radio this morning comes the alarming news that at least eight Israelis have been killed in Haifa (Israel's third largest city) by a Hezbollah missile strike. In response Israel is accusing Syria and Iran of culpability and threatening further vengeance. Meanwhile, the US government and Tony Blair keep reiterating "Israel's right to defend itself." President Bush was on Irish radio this morning from St. Petersburg, accusing Iran and Syria of supporting terrorism.

This disturbing rhetoric is truly frightening, especially in light of the assertion here that the current hostilities between Israel and Lebanon started with a deliberate provocation by Israel. [Hat tip to Shakespeare's Sister.]

If Israel really did entice Hezbollah to kidnap Israeli soldiers by deliberately placing them in harm's way, it's hard not to conclude that Israel's goal all along has been to create an incident to provide an excuse to invade Lebanon. The massive scope, rapidity and coordination of Israel's operation certainly lends credence to this theory. As does their destruction of the Beirut airport, bridges, roadways, a lighthouse, apartment complexes and other civilian targets.

So, if this is true, what to make of the escalating Israeli rhetoric?

Go back in time several months. When President Bush recently began (again) characterising Iran as an imminent threat to US security, using almost the exact rhetoric his regime employed in the lead up to the Iraq invasion, I began bracing myself for a US air invasion of Iran. (The US does not currently possess the ground troops to invade Iran by land.) Worse, given Seymour Hersh's reporting in The New Yorker, I’ve been terrified of a nuclear air war.

Facing mid-term Congressional elections in November in which they might lose control of at least one branch of the legislature, along with widespread and growing American opposition to the war in Iraq, it’s highly unlikely that Republicans would invade Iran without “serious provocation.” For this reason, among others, I’ve been bracing myself for “another 9/11.”

A second scenario, however, has always been that Israel would take the lead on an Iranian invasion by bombing selected targets in Iran, using the excuse that their own security was threatened, provoking an Iranian military response against Israel which would then “cause” America (and Great Britain) to jump in to defend their ally.

The second scenario may be unfolding before our eyes in this very moment.

I am seriously freaking out at this prospect.

The potential loss of life in the hundreds of thousands and the human suffering is horrific to contemplate.

As a friend of mine says, the human capacity for destruction and cruelty is heartbreaking, especially in light of the potential for beauty and love.